What is holding back the protests ?

The government has just presented its third tax reform during this term, and I’m already expecting cities to collapse, highways to be blocked, public transportation systems to be destroyed, and the Primera Línea to be reborn. For the government, the reform of former Finance Minister Antonio Ocampo, which aimed to collect 20 trillion pesos, wasn’t enough. Now, with the current minister Germán Ávila, the government is proposing a new reform that will attempt to raise 26 trillion. The reform comes at a critical moment, with a government that broke the fiscal rule and had to pass the national budget by decree. It is in this context that I expect, at any moment, a social outburst similar to 2021. Why does the government need this reform? What is Minister Ávila proposing? What could be the consequences of passing the tax reform?

To understand the government’s urgency, we must go back to the excessive increases in the budget. The national budget for 2025 was 511 trillion, and the government is seeking congressional approval for 556.9 trillion in 2026. This represents an increase of about 46 trillion that the government does not have and does not know where to get from. That is why they are proposing this new reform, so that the new tax collection justifies this large increase.

But, as with everything in life, things are understood best in comparison and context, so it’s worth doing the following exercise: During Santos’ eight years in office, the budget increased by about 87 trillion. During Duque’s four years, it increased by about 115 trillion. During the current government, the increase would be 206 trillion. We are already starting to see the compulsive spending syndrome that this administration suffers from. We cannot allow a government to inflate a public budget so unbalanced and irresponsible with debt and higher taxes. Another reason to expect that soon the same voices that cried out in 2021 will start to be heard again.

So, why are the protests not starting yet? Could it be that this time the disproportionate budget increase and the tax reform are actually justified? Some of the proposals in the new reform make sense, such as higher taxes on gambling, tobacco, and alcohol. These goods and services generate negative externalities, and if the government is able to discourage their consumption while increasing revenue, these initiatives should be welcomed. Where the reform falters is in its proposals to substantially increase the carbon tax and the VAT on diesel and gasoline. These goods are essential to any economy, and raising their cost could trigger a chain reaction that increases the overall cost of living.

However, despite the delicate situation, the president delighted us with a phrase that we will remember for a long time. From the same creators of “The so-called national agrarian strike does not exist” and “Colombia with a capital C” comes “The poor hardly use gasoline.” He must have forgotten that taxi drivers and Uber drivers are oligarchs with plenty of free time, that all public transportation is electric just like the elevated train that connects Buenaventura with the Caribbean, that while rich people’s food arrives in cities on trucks, the poor’s food arrives in carts pulled by mules, and that the nearly 12 million motorcycles in the country are all Harley-Davidsons owned by millionaires going through midlife crises. Every good social uprising needs a stupid yet iconic phrase to give it strength. What is holding back the protests?

It’s time to take to the streets again! The Colombian government seems not to understand that unfair tax reforms will always be met with popular demonstrations. Iván Duque didn’t understand this and made a mistake with his reform in 2021. This government, with its ambitious reform, is committing even more sins than the previous one. The tax reform is being introduced due to the irresponsible fiscal management of this administration. Proof of this is having broken the fiscal rule and having approved the current budget by decree, as this government so loves to do. Their proposals are regressive and disproportionately hurt the poorest, and the alternative is clear: reduce the unjustified spending that is taking place.

The response to this new reform, which could end up being more damaging than the previous one, is to once again take to the streets, to once again confront the government, and to demand respect for our rights. But… where are today the outraged citizens from 2021? Where are those offended by Carrasquilla’s tax reform? What happened to those who tore their clothes in anger at Duque’s comments?

Wait a second! Is the new reform from Gustavo Petro? Is it the progressive government of the Pacto Histórico that is pushing this new tax reform?

Then forget everything I just said—welcome, new tax reform!

This reform reveals not only fiscal disorder on the part of the government but also incoherence on the part of many citizens and movements. Those who marched against a smaller tax reform today remain silent in the face of an even more burdensome one. This double standard erodes the symbolism of protest and makes it clear that outrage does not depend on injustices themselves but on who commits them.