The War of the 21st Century

Four years ago, the Russian army launched its invasion of Ukraine, and today it is beginning to lose the war. What initially seemed like a rapid conquest that would take only a few weeks turned into a grueling war of attrition. Both sides became bogged down, and every meter of territory gained required enormous economic, military, and human efforts. But now, Ukraine is closer to victory than ever before, and the key was understanding that 21st century wars are not won by fighting like it is still the 20th century.

For much of these four years, the front lines were practically indistinguishable from those of the First or Second World War. Trenches at every defensive position, battalions immobilized and unable to break enemy lines, tanks buried in the mud during the rainy months, and predictable offensives because advances could only happen in spring or summer. Modern uniforms, advanced weapons, and state-of-the-art artillery were unable to change the strategic reality or military logic.

In this scenario, Ukraine survived thanks to massive American and European aid. That support financed much of its war effort and allowed Ukraine to obtain the weapons and ammunition needed to limit Russian advances. However, this reality is changing thanks to the investment and importance the Ukrainian military command has placed on technological development and industrialization. Little by little, Ukraine is becoming a kind of small Silicon Valley for the military industry.

At the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainian President Zelensky recorded videos in the streets of Kyiv begging for military aid. Today, he appears in productions dressed in black, almost like the Steve Jobs of warfare, promoting cutting-edge Ukrainian military technology. The country has gone from depending on American HIMARS rocket launchers and European funding to buy ammunition to sustaining itself through its own drone production and design industry. And while it is true that the Russians have also made use of drones, it is the Ukrainians who have perfected the art of using them in war.

Ukraine’s army can boast that its TW12.7 ground drone can hold defensive positions for more than a month without the need to send human soldiers to the front line. Its unmanned NRK platforms, together with swarms of aerial drones, have been capable of capturing enemy positions. And to make everything seem even more futuristic, there are images of Russian soldiers surrendering to drones and being escorted to Ukrainian positions by them. The goal of the Ukrainian military command is for robots to carry out much of the frontline combat work in the future.

In addition to this, Ukraine has been able to bring the war onto Russian soil and devastate its main source of income: oil. Over the past year, several attacks involving hundreds of drones have targeted Russia’s main refineries and export ports. Following these attacks, the Ukrainians have reportedly reduced around 40% of the enemy’s export capacity, creating bottlenecks in the production chain and generating significant drops in Russian revenues, even considering the rise in international oil prices caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

We are beginning to see what modern warfare truly means: a conflict heavily focused on attacks against internal production chains and the widespread use of drones. Ukraine’s war effort is the starting point for the robotization of armed conflict. And although the war remains one of attrition and there is still no clear end in sight, the truth is that Russia continues its old tradition of trying to win through constant waves of newly recruited soldiers, while Ukraine’s leading technology companies are at the forefront of drone production, receiving multimillion dollar investments, and exploring the possibility of opening their first factories abroad. The war is still far from over, but Ukraine is at the forefront of drone technology development and is gradually becoming a small military power.