The Sensible One, the Corrupt One, and the Enabler

The economic prudence that Gustavo Petro showed at the beginning of his government, which helped dispel the fears many of us had, has come to an end. From an economic standpoint, Petro’s arrival at the Casa de Nariño sparked concerns across several sectors, largely due to his political profile and a number of his campaign statements. However, the first months of his administration were marked by the sound judgment and calm that figures such as José Antonio Ocampo brought to the table.

Now we are in a completely opposite situation. Petro will leave the presidency in a few months, leaving behind financial disarray. The breach of the fiscal rule, high levels of public debt, and the budget imbalance will be some of the main headaches for whoever becomes the next president. How did the government move from prudence to complete irresponsibility in such a short time? What role did each of his finance ministers play? What is the state of the economy right now?

After his victory in the last elections, Petro wanted to send a clear message. He represented change, but it would be carried out sensibly, following a strong technical framework and accompanied by highly qualified people. Beyond some questionable profiles, the first wave of ministers was full of professionals and experts. Many of them helped polish the government’s image and sell the notion of a serious, technical administration. Names such as Cecilia López, Alejandro Gaviria, Catalina Velasco, and the aforementioned José Antonio Ocampo eased some of the initial fears and gave the government a stamp of credibility.

The Sensible Minister (José Antonio Ocampo: August 7, 2022 – May 1, 2023)

Ocampo is a center-left economist who, from the start of his career, has been associated with the ECLAC school and has displayed clearly Keynesian economic tendencies. At the same time, he has an extensive résumé in which he has always stood out for his technical rigor. These two conditions fit what the government was looking for. Petro needed to include figures who had some ideological proximity to him but were also capable of mitigating the markets’ initial fears. Ocampo was the perfect bet. His appointment as finance minister reassured investors and calmed nerves during the first months of the administration.

During his time in government, Ocampo played the role of a prudent and balanced adviser. He helped pass a tax reform while at the same time defending economic institutions from constant pressure from the presidency. Ocampo was committed to the government’s agenda but did not hesitate to prioritize fiscal stability above anything else. The minister was clear from the start: “We will firmly respect the fiscal rule, and that has meant we must rationalize different requests from the government team in order to comply with it.” However, before completing a year in office, Ocampo left the ministry after a political crisis in which the president requested the resignation of several ministers.

The Corrupt Minister (Ricardo Bonilla: May 1, 2023 – December 4, 2024; Diego Guevara: December 4, 2024 – March 18, 2025)

With Ocampo’s departure, Ricardo Bonilla arrived at the ministry. Much closer to Petro ideologically, Bonilla can be considered a hard-left economist. His positions are more radical compared to Ocampo’s, and for a long time he was the main economic ideologue within what is now the Historic Pact. Despite this, Bonilla remained loyal to institutions and basic economic parameters. During his tenure, he advised the president not to declare an economic emergency and repeatedly stressed the importance of complying with the fiscal rule.

Bonilla spent a little over a year and a half at the ministry but had to resign after being implicated in the corruption scandal involving the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD). Allegedly, Bonilla bought members of Congress from the Public Credit Commission to push through government reforms using funds intended for the UNGRD. In this context, Diego Guevara was appointed on a provisional basis; he served only three months as acting minister while the government decided on the ministry’s direction. Ultimately, Petro chose former M-19 member Germán Ávila.

The Enabling Minister (Germán Ávila: March 20, 2025 – present)

Unlike Ocampo and Bonilla, Germán Ávila has been unable to say no to the president. Since his arrival, the government has entered a cycle of fiscal irresponsibility that has worsened over time and feeds itself. Just three months after his appointment, the government breached the fiscal rule, signaling that respect for technical parameters and economic institutions had come to an end. Following this, and driven by the government’s persistent need to spend money it does not have, a series of borrowings at exorbitant rates began, along with a succession of economic emergency decrees that lacked any real justification.

With Ávila, Gustavo Petro became the Colombian president with the most finance ministers in the last 60 years. He began with Ocampo, a respected and internationally recognized academic, and ended with Ávila, a decorative figure whose role is simply to agree. This evolution reinforces the belief that Petro is unable to work with anyone who attempts to limit his excesses. The state now faces a fiscal imbalance created by the president’s imprudence and the enabling attitude of his new finance minister. Regardless of who the next president is, they will face a major problem. Petro has left his successor a ticking time bomb that is about to explode.