New prisoner, same dictatorship

The world woke up on January 3rd to what could easily become the most consequential piece of news for Latin America in all of 2026. An elite force of the United States military bombed strategic locations in Caracas and succeeded in capturing Nicolás Maduro. It did not take long for images to surface of Maduro in handcuffs, blindfolded, and aboard the USS Iwo Jima, en route to a court in the state of New York. Hours later, during a press conference, U.S. President Donald Trump offered half-answers and left us with more questions than explanations. What were the true intentions of the United States? How did they manage to capture Maduro so efficiently? What will happen now in Venezuela?

Initial reactions to the events have been varied. On one hand, the unified jubilation of Venezuelans upon hearing the news, even without certainty that their country will return to normalcy. On the other, many self-described progressives mourning the fate of a banana-republic dictator who tortured political prisoners and deployed his motorized paramilitaries to intimidate opponents. But beyond these reactions, the question of motives quickly emerged. The statements made during the press conference and the subsequent political actions leave little room for doubt. The answer is clear, and Trump has not even attempted to hide it. They were after the oil.

During a significant portion of the press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Trump spoke about Venezuelan oil and his interest in investing in infrastructure to modernize and boost its production. The insistence on keeping this issue as the central axis of any discussion about Venezuela’s future removes any lingering doubt about his intentions. No one should be left questioning that Trump’s true motivations were economic. At the same time, however, no one should doubt that the justifications used to carry out the capture were also entirely true. Nicolás Maduro was not the legitimate president of Venezuela; he was a narco-tyrant who oppressed his people.

What happened in Venezuela inevitably recalls the U.S. invasion of Panama and the capture of Antonio Noriega, but this case differs greatly in both form and substance. In terms of form, the invasion of Panama lasted several weeks, involved thousands of soldiers, and resulted in hundreds of deaths. What occurred in Venezuela was a surgical extraction: it lasted only a few hours, and although there are no official figures, the death toll appears to be in the dozens. The United States may have the best military in the world, the most advanced technology, and elite units, but an operation of this level cannot be so precise and successful without internal assistance.

It is quite plausible that Nicolás Maduro was handed over. Chavismo is no longer the monolithic structure it was during Chávez’s era, and internal tensions among its various factions were evident. Whether it was Cabello, Padrino, or one of the Rodríguez brothers, the reality is that keeping Maduro in power had become unsustainable, even for the Chavista leadership itself. Internal power struggles will inevitably follow, but for now it is Delcy Rodríguez who governs. The same Delcy Rodríguez with whom Trump claims Marco Rubio is negotiating, and who today stands as Venezuela’s blatant new dictator. Such immediate diplomatic recognition and such a rushed succession look more like a political payoff.

Returning to the comparison with Panama and focusing on substance, Noriega’s fall marked the end of a dictatorship and the beginning of a democratic transition. By contrast, Maduro’s fall in Venezuela leaves only uncertainty about the direction of a dictatorship without its dictator. Delcy now holds power, and it is fair to ask whether all of this was done merely to install someone in office with whom negotiations would be easier. With Maduro, it was difficult, he preferred to mock Trump rather than accept a luxurious and comfortable exile in Turkey. With Delcy, however, it is a different story. Beyond continuing to demand the heads of Cabello and Padrino, Trump appears quite comfortable negotiating with Rodríguez.

I do not believe Trump’s ultimate goal is to restore Venezuelan democracy. If that were the case, he would not have dismissed María Corina Machado as he did during his press conference. Trump needs only for Venezuela’s viceroy, Marco Rubio, to ensure that the new dictator, Delcy Rodríguez, signs the oil contracts. This would not be the first time Trump has turned his back on democracy. He did so in his own country when he encouraged the assault on the Capitol during the Electoral College vote count. It should come as no surprise if he does the same in Venezuela. It is not enough for Maduro to be sitting in a Brooklyn jail if the Chavista dictatorship continues to rule Venezuela. There is little point in capturing the dictator if the dictatorship itself remains intact.