Filling the Candidate Album

Less than 10 months remain before the elections in Colombia, and choosing a candidate has become an impossible task. Colombians face the tedious job of looking through more than 70 names to decide who will be the next tenant of the Casa de Nariño. Unlike previous years, when strong political figures with clear leadership and a small number of presidential hopefuls stood out, this election offers an extensive catalog of personalities, none of whom surpass 15% in voting intention.

Of course, the exaggerated number of pre-candidates is inflated by a long list of unknowns who don’t even reach 0.1%. However, according to the last major poll conducted before Gustavo Petro enacted the “gag law,” more than 25 candidates would surpass 100,000 votes. This calculation is based on national electoral potential, assuming, as in 2022, that 58% of the voting population exercises its right to vote. On the other hand, only Miguel Uribe, who was brutally assassinated, would have barely exceeded 3 million votes. While this exercise is speculative, based on strong assumptions and not a serious predictive method, it does highlight how fragmented the vote is in this electoral race. There are no major political figures, no candidates uniting large sectors of the population, and no contenders who already have enough votes secured to guarantee a spot in a runoff. What will each sector of the political spectrum do?

Centro Democrático

The right-wing campaign is a complete mess. Following the death of Miguel Uribe, who was the only viable candidate for Centro Democrático, the right was left leaderless. The four remaining pre-candidates within Centro Democrático face stiff competition from figures outside the party who want to become the standard-bearers of uribismo and the broader right. To complicate matters further, Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of Miguel Uribe Turbay, recently entered the race as the party’s fifth pre-candidate. The conflict between party insiders and outsiders like Vicky Dávila and Abelardo de la Espriella makes the process of narrowing down to a single candidate even more difficult. Party loyalists argue their years of work and commitment should give them priority, but their weak electoral capacity suggests the right may once again end up with an outsider as its final candidate.

The Broad Center

The center is a collection of all kinds of candidates that is slowly turning into a battle of egos. Several groups can be distinguished here: centrist politicians such as Fajardo, Claudia López, and Galán; technocrats who have held roles in public administration, like Alejandro Gaviria, Mauricio Cárdenas, and Juan Daniel Oviedo; possible candidates from traditional parties such as the Liberal, Conservative, and U party; center-right candidates like Germán Vargas Lleras, Santiago Botero, and Wilson Orejuela; and many regional candidates, known for their performance as governors or mayors.

What the center lacks most is consensus and political viability. The most notable dynamic has been the clash between Sergio Fajardo and Claudia López. Both are among the strongest contenders and know they are competing for the same electorate, yet their egos and stubbornness keep them from agreeing to a joint primary, effectively splitting the centrist vote. The technocrats, meanwhile, suffer from what could be called the “curse of denied talent”: they are likely the most capable and skilled administrators, but are doomed to fail in elected office. Candidates from traditional parties may have party machinery behind them, but unlike in past years, their parties are more likely to support other campaigns. Regional candidates are unable to translate local success into national votes. And finally, the center-right—by flirting with uribismo—is disqualified from the rest of the center. As a wise man once told me, politically speaking, closeness to Uribe in the center is like the embrace of a leper.

Pacto Histórico

The left, while also plagued by political disagreements and ego clashes, is far more organized and structured than any other sector of the political spectrum. The rules within Pacto Histórico are clear, and although there are strong tensions between prominent pre-candidates such as Gustavo Bolívar and Daniel Quintero, all have committed to the party’s established processes. The Pacto Histórico’s internal consultation, set for October, will determine which of the eight current contenders becomes its candidate. That candidate will then enter a broader inter-party primary with smaller leftist parties to produce a single nominee. The main names in the running are Gustavo Bolívar, Daniel Quintero, and Iván Cepeda.

Bolívar is one of the most visible figures in the party, but his recent disagreements with the president could cost him dearly in the race. Daniel Quintero is the newcomer. Many within the party and the left more broadly disapprove of his inclusion in the primary, but the support he has received from Petro could give him a slight edge. Finally, there is Iván Cepeda, who has recently gained attention due to his lawsuit against Álvaro Uribe. Despite his broad favorability among fellow party members, however, he is not a very viable candidate beyond leftist circles.

Only after the primaries leading up to the first round will alliances be defined, candidates narrowed down, and the true contenders to succeed Gustavo Petro identified. The right remains confused and leaderless after Miguel Uribe’s death. The center is overcrowded with minor candidates who prioritize ego over unity. And the left, while more disciplined, faces a heated internal dispute over Daniel Quintero’s role. The 2026 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most fragmented in Colombia’s history, and the sheer number of candidates without solid bases signals deep uncertainty for the country’s electoral future.